Source: Wikicommons, 12/08/06. Demonstration against Robert Mugage’s regime
next to the Zimbabwe embassy in London, on August 12, 2006. Author: TwoWings.
According
to figures released by the International Monetary Fund in June, Zimbabwe’s
external debt obligations at the end of 2013 were estimated be US$10.6 billion
(over 80 percent of the country’s gross domestic product). The government is
failing to achieve greater transparency in diamond production and revenue
collection, affecting its ability to invest in desperately needed public
services, including essential services such as water, education, health, and
sanitation.
Some
20,000 people, displaced by flooding from the Tokwe-Mukorsi dam in Masvingo
province in February, were evicted and resettled with little government
protection. They have not received adequate compensation, including land for
resettlement, and were pressured to relocate to land with disputed titles. When
displaced people protested in August, over 200 anti-riot police used excessive
force and beat and arrested about 300 people; 29 were charged with public
violence. At time of writing, the case was still being heard in court.
In
the capital, Harare, many people have little access to potable water and
sanitation. Police violated basic rights, such as freedom of expression and
assembly, using old laws that are inconsistent with the new constitution.
Activists and human rights defenders, including lesbian, gay, bisexual, and
transgender (LGBT) people, faced police harassment. There has been no progress
toward securing justice for human rights abuses and past political violence,
including violence after the 2008 election.
For
instance, in January:
police
arrested five activists from four NGOs—Chitungwiza Residents Trust, Combined
Harare Residents Association, Centre for Community Development in Zimbabwe
Trust, and Zimbabwe Human Rights Association—for participating in a
demonstration in Chitungwiza. They were later released without charge. Also in
January, police arrested 12 leaders of the Zimbabwe National Students Union.
The students, who were beaten in police custody, were arrested during a
demonstration against poor education standards at Harare Polytechnic College.
7 % of the British population is educated in independent schools. Three out of four lawyers and military officials, and a majority of doctors, journalists and politicians in the United Kingdom are educated in these schools.
A leaked UN memo
to the Security Council has warned that a peacekeeping force in the
African nation of Burundi would be unable to stop large-scale violence
should it erupt in an ongoing crisis caused by president Nkurunziza’s
election for a third term.
However it is not too late for Nkurunziza to choose his legacy:
either be remembered as a war criminal facing prison or death, or
renowned for solving a dangerous political situation. A new round of
peace talks is due to take place this month but Burundi’s government recently announced there had been “no consensus” on a date.
Nkurunziza has the opportunity to engage fully in peace talks with
the help of the African Union and the United Nations. By doing so, he
will be able to show the Burundian people that he can lead his state to
peace, and concentrate on what he can do best: providing further education for all, and in the long term, economic development, too.
A questionable third mandate
Since April 2015, when Nkurunziza decided to run for another term, over 400 people have been killed and hundreds of thousands have been internally displaced or have sought refuge in neighbouring countries.
However, the Burundian Constitutional Court countered that the renewal of the presidential term for another five years was not against the constitution
of Burundi, because Nkurunziza was appointed by the parliament, and not
elected by the people, for his first term – a decision that a leading opposition member claimed had been made under pressure by the Nkurunziza regime.
Lengthening terms
But the stance of the international community seems hypocritical: presidents Paul Kagame in Rwanda and Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazzaville
have also sought changes to the constitutions of their states to run
for a third mandate, but there is more criticism of Nkurunziza for
effectively doing the same. Even though the overall environment was “not conducive”
to an inclusive, free and credible electoral process on election day,
the UN said, “Burundians in most places went peacefully to the polls to
cast their ballots”. The head of the electoral commission, Pierre Claver
Ndayicariye, told reporters that Nkurunziza won 70% of the votes cast. This needs to be acknowledged by the international community.
Violence was fomented by both the government and the demonstrators.
The government has led a campaign of political repression that has
included beatings, arrests and house-to-house searches, with nearly 3,500 detained. Demonstrators have also been violent, and have attacked military sites in the capital Bujumbura.
Today, the president can either encourage violence further, and face
being handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague
or he can lead Burundi out of violence, and engage with mediating the
conflict.
Nkurunziza is certain to face the ICC if he does not stop Burundi
from descending into further violence, because Burundi has ratified the
ICC statute. The prosecutor of the ICC, Fatou Bensouda, has already warned that she would act if wide-scale abuses are committed.
Didn’t end well for DRC’s Laurent Kabila.JJ Georges, CC BY
Nkurunziza will be in the same situation as other heads of states who have been wanted by the ICC: Omar al Bashir
in Sudan in 2009 (though investigations into alleged war crimes in
Darfur were halted in 2014); Laurent Gbagbo in Ivory Coast (whose trial
at the ICC begins this month);
and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya in 2011. A violent end is another
possibility, and was the fate of Laurent Kabila in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo in 2001, and Gaddafi in 2011.
At a crossroads
That said, president Nkurunziza could nonetheless become the leader
who prevents another civil war. From 1993 to 2006, an estimated 300,000 people were killed in Burundi due to political conflict with ethnic manifestations, and there are fears that this may happen again if the matter is not resolved in talks.
For the moment, as academic Devon Curtis says,
the crisis in Burundi is political and not ethnic. To avoid further
bloodshed, it must remain so, and president Nkurunziza could lead the
way out of the current crisis by engaging with the African Union which
is prepared to help stop violence, and with the United Nations which is currently at loss as to how to deal with further violence, but which can help with mediation.
To alleviate the tense situation, Nkurunziza needs to make the most
of the window of opportunity of negotiation he still has with the
international community. Likewise regional actors who show bias need to
stay clear from the mediation process. Rwanda in particular has been backing demonstrators in Burundi.
Nkurunziza is at a crossroads. The path he takes will be a crucial one for the country – and himself.
